Employment Thursday

Well, It would appear that the positive readings from last week were more than just an anomaly. This week's initial unemployment claims came in at 457,000, down from last weeks 466,000. The rule of thumb is that the 350k-450k range means stagnation in employment (as opposed to 450+ which is contraction). However, with most of the seasonal employment already hired and seasonal firings yet to come (in January), I don't know if this will hold.

Another thing that gives me pause is that the recovery seems very uneven. What I mean by that is the Fed released their "Beige Book" yesterday. The Beige Book contains reports on economic conditions from each of the 12 branches of the Federal Reserve. While the macro aggregate numbers are beginning to turn positive, the trend primarily represents scattered strength. One industry is strong in one area, another in another area. Very few things are strong nation wide. I don't know if this will have any significance, but it's worth mentioning that sometimes things can get lost in nationwide data.